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Eurasian Integration, a hobby of mine

3/21/2014

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I've written much on Eurasian Integration, and it's really gone into overdrive with the Ukraine crisis. Here's a new piece for Russia Direct on how Ukraine is killing integration... and how China is benefiting. 

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Ukraine redux

3/4/2014

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It's been tough to keep up the blog when everything is going kablowey in Ukraine. but yesterday's crash in Russian markets meant I had to give a lot of commentary on the fly. For your edification, you can check me out here on RT talking about "Black Monday" and here on Dukascopy Swiss Financial TV talking about the same thing (slanted a bit more heavily to interest rates). 

Also, I've been fighting twitter trolls who apparently can't quite get that free speech means "you can say what you want" and not "if you don't say things are are unabashedly pro-Russia and anti-Western you are some kind of Nazi and we will track you down at your employer and spam everyone you work with." I think that's the price of fame these days, and I'm not even famous. Russia is a funny place sometimes, but the internet remains the last bastion of nutjobs, wingnuts, trolls, and Stalinist loonies. Either way, enjoy my commentary!
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How (not) to complete a successful economic transition

11/22/2013

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Courtesy of Ukraine, which has not just gone off the deep end but is actively attempting to become the poorest nation in Europe, a list of how to completely and utterly botch an economic transition:

  1. Under no circumstances attempt to have a sound currency. In fact, continually hyper-inflate.
  2. Make sure that state-owned enterprises are continually subsidized, with a focus on keeping the biggest ones open the longest
  3. Take lots and lots of money for foreign aid agencies (the US are the best, those suckers!) but don't have anything to show for it after 20 years
  4. Continually question "western liberalism" as being not suitable for your country, and that maybe you do need to have a nice and slow gradual transition
  5. Lurch from political crisis to political crisis, including having a leader that is steeped in the Soviet past. When he becomes too much of a crook, have popular demonstrations to throw him out.
  6. Have the guy who comes in afterwards turn out to be ineffective and quarrels with other people in his government incessantly
  7. Allow a Russian apparatchik to come back into power, elected almost entirely by the Russian part of your hybrid country
  8. For good measure, jail the previous Prime Minister, and don't listen to anyone else who tells you that wasn't a good idea. You know everything, after all.
  9. Continue to promise the moon and the stars to the people, while spending freely and keeping a huge government
  10. Listen to everything Russia says - Putin has been in power a long time, he must be an economic genius.
  11. Renege on international agreements at the last minute
  12. Ignore the success stories of countries near you (in some cases, on your borders) that started at the exact same time and level as you. You probably know a better way, and besides, Poland is like, an entirely different country.
  13. Consider anything that will bring you closer to Russia.
  14. Enact anything that brings you closer to Russia.
  15. Ignore the riots that result.
  16. Hope that Russia bails you out.


Sounds like a perfect recipe, one that Ukraine is following to the letter. Ukraine - the country of the future. 
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    Dr. Christopher Hartwell is an institutional economist and President of CASE Warsaw. All commentary on this page is exclusively his own and in no way represents the views of CASE, his wife, his dog, or anyone else. Especially not his wife or his dog.

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